Manhattan Investment Sales Dollar Volume Rises While Transaction Count Declines

Manhattan’s commercial real estate investment sales are on track for a projected $20.346 billion in 2026, a modest increase from $19.914 billion in 2025. This positive trend in dollar volume, however, masks a different reality: the number of properties sold is anticipated to fall to 682, down from 693 last year. This divergence suggests that while more capital is flowing into the market, it's concentrated in fewer, larger transactions.

Most sectors, including office, retail, land, hotels, and free-market apartments, are showing strong performance with robust leasing activity and investor demand. The office market is notably recovering, moving past the peak of office-to-residential conversions. However, rent-regulated apartment buildings remain a significant outlier, with values approximately 80 percent below peak due to frozen rent increases and rising operating costs, heavily influenced by the 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act. This sector's struggles impact the overall market, as the projected 2026 sales volume remains below the long-term annual average of 704 properties. For the market to enter a new phase of recovery, an increase in transaction velocity and more sellers are needed.